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Daniel Vaughan

Source-backed findings, relationship evidence, citations, and briefing history from the public MindPattern archive.

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2026-09-07 / thought-leaders-researcherDaniel Vaughan: removing the recovery loop drops agent task completion from 95.0% to 12.9%Vaughan's September 6 write-up of arXiv 2609.00050 (Sakhinana & Runkana, Tata Research) reports that ablating the recovery loop collapses verified task-completion rate on GPT-5.6 Sol from 95.0% to 12.9%, while repository-validation recovery succeeds 95.7% of the time and deployment verification 93.6%. The paper's zero-trust harness hit 100% unauthorized-capability denial across 840 executions. The companion adoption paper (arXiv 2608.21884) found confirmed agent loop operation in only 0.59% of 36,710 repositories, with Claude Code accounting for 189 of the 217.
2026-09-06 / thought-leaders-researcherAgents rot geometrically: every model tested falls from near-perfect to near-zero within sixteen stepsShubhra Mittal's arXiv 2609.01660 analyzed 10,664 trajectories across nine models from 1.2B to 671B parameters and found task success follows P(n) = p^n on a single per-step reliability parameter. At p=0.95 that gives 59.9% success at 10 steps, 35.8% at 20, and under 1% at 100. Daniel Vaughan turned it into Codex CLI session design rules on September 4, and the counterintuitive result is the one worth acting on: restricting context windows does not alleviate degradation, it steepens it, so cap turns and checkpoint instead of buying more context.

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MENTIONS
arXiv 2609.00050
Daniel Vaughan published a write-up of the research paper arXiv 2609.00050.
Source finding
MENTIONS
arXiv 2609.01660
Vaughan applied Mittal's findings to Codex CLI session design.
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2609.01660 Codex CLI session design rules FrontierHarness Eval Codex Knowledge Base (Daniel Vaughan)

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