Formal Framework for Quantifying Quantum Cryptographic Exposure Under Harvest-Now-Decrypt-Later Threat

arXiv·low signal

Provides the first formal mathematical framework for measuring exposure to harvest-now-decrypt-later (HNDL) quantum attacks, where adversaries copy encrypted traffic today and wait for quantum computers to decrypt it. The HNDL compromise probability factorizes into temporal hazard, cryptographic vulnerability, and operational exposure — enabling organizations to calculate concrete risk scores. Relevant for security teams planning post-quantum migration timelines: the framework gives a principled basis for prioritization rather than guesswork.