Dispatch
Anthropic put three numbered 2030 GDP scenarios on the table, including one where labor share falls from 60% to 45%
The Anthropic Economic Index published 'Economic Scenarios for Transformative AI' (Version 1.0, September 2026) by Anton Korinek, Chad Jones, Szymon Sacher, Tess Cotter and Peter McCrory, projecting three paths to 2030 from a task-based framework over occupational job bundles. Modest puts US GDP at $34.1T (+1.6%), Substantial at $36.3T (+8.3%) with AI handling half of knowledge work, and Extreme at $44.4T (+32.4%) with 15% annual growth contingent on recursively self-improving systems. Labor share of GDP lands at 59.4%, 56.1% and 45.2% respectively, which is the figure that turns this from a growth forecast into a distribution argument.
↳ Follow the thread