Anthropic's economic model files Amodei's own job-loss forecast under its most extreme scenario

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Anthropic's 'Scenarios for our Economic Future' models three 2030 paths: modest (AI on about 4% of tasks, GDP +1.6%), substantial (growth doubles to 5.4%, GDP 8.3% above baseline), and extreme (output +32%, unemployment near 12%, white-collar jobs down more than 20%). The Decoder points out that Dario Amodei's May 2025 warning of half of entry-level office jobs gone and 10 to 20% unemployment only matches the extreme case, where knowledge-worker unemployment hits 17.9% and labor's GDP share falls from 60% to 45%. Anthropic's own economists have placed the CEO's most-quoted forecast at the unlikely end of their range.