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Mozilla's State of Open Source AI v1.1 puts the open-vs-closed lag at 4.4 months on METR time horizons
Mozilla's stateofopensource.ai report, posted to r/LocalLLaMA, uses METR Time Horizon 1.1 data to put the task-length capability lag at roughly 4.4 months, with a 3-point Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index v4.1.1 gap at 60% of the price and a 92-Elo gap on GDPval-AA v2 professional knowledge work. It cites K3 at 88.3 on Terminal-Bench 2.1 and a stark long-context split (Gemini 3.1 Pro 89% vs DeepSeek V4-Pro 41% at 1M tokens). The top technical comment in the thread disputes the aggregation, noting it still folds in GSM8K, HellaSwag and plain MMLU in 2026 and ranks GPT-5.2 above GLM 5.2.
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