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Census Bureau Economists Measure a 13% Earnings Drop for AI-Exposed Graduates, Matching a Recession
Working paper CES-26-56 by Cody Orr, Lee C. Tucker and Lawrence Warren uses administrative records to track college graduates since ChatGPT shipped in late 2022. The most AI-exposed decile of majors saw initial employment likelihood fall five percentage points and full-quarter initial earnings fall 13 percent, which the authors call comparable to graduating into a large recession. Roughly half the earnings decline comes from graduates shifting into lower-wage sectors such as restaurants and retail rather than from lower pay within the same sector.
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