SaaStr: OpenAI's $122B 'VC Round' Is Vendor Deals, Contingent Capital, and a Guaranteed Return It Can't Afford

SaaStr·high signal

SaaStr dissects the OpenAI mega-round structure: Amazon's $50B includes $35B contingent on IPO or AGI milestone (only $15B committed day-one), SoftBank's $30B comes in quarterly $10B tranches with evaluation gates, and SoftBank simultaneously committed $3B/year to deploy OpenAI across its portfolio — making it investor and customer. Internal projections show $14-17B in losses in 2026 against $22B spending, meaning actual close-day capital buys roughly 2-2.5 years of runway.