TSMC Q1 2026: 58% Profit Surge, AI Now 61% of Revenue — But Stratechery Says Leadership Isn't Truly Bought In

Stratechery·high signal

TSMC reported Q1 revenue of NT$1.134T ($35B), up 35% YoY, with 58% profit growth and 66.2% gross margin (all-time high). AI/HPC now 61% of total revenue, up from 40% two years ago. 3nm is 25% of wafer revenue, 5nm is 36%. Guided Q2 at $39-40.2B and full-year 30%+ growth. But Ben Thompson's Stratechery analysis argues TSMC leadership isn't truly bought into the AI growth story based on their conservative new fab announcements. For builders: the supply chain is printing money but the N3 capacity ramp suggests the chip bottleneck persists well into 2027.