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Policy2026-08-11 · source-backed
His August 7 essay makes a specific structural argument: nearly every current regulation proposal assumes a model is trained once, safety-checked, then deployed frozen. If base models update daily from real work sessions, pre-deployment evaluation becomes a snapshot of something that no longer exists. Miles Brundage picked it up in the context of entity-based rather than model-based frontier regulation. I don't think Patel is arguing for no regulation, and I've seen the piece read that way. He's arguing that the unit of regulation is wrong, which is a harder and more useful claim.
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In a June 8 essay, Patel defines intelligence as sample efficiency, argues models have barely improved on it, and says the real gains come from widening data distribution and scaling the compute that manufactures data (RL reframed as verifier-guided synthetic data). His conclu...
His August 7 essay lays out 8 predictions for continuously updating models. The sharp ones for builders: today's safety frameworks and alignment techniques both assume frozen weights and become archaic and potentially counterproductive; labs get forced to deploy earlier becaus...
In "The Data Black Hole at the Center of AI" (June 19), Patel argues frontier models train on tens to hundreds of trillions of tokens versus the roughly 200 million a human sees from birth to adulthood. That's a million-fold sample-efficiency gap. His thesis casts architecture...
Justin Wang and Dan Robinson's RSI Simulator is a browser game where you run an AI lab allocating labor, compute and data toward superintelligence, built on the Elasticity Institute's economics of recursive self-improvement (Paradigm). The model turns on elasticities, chiefly...
Dwarkesh Patel and Jerry Han decomposed 2019-2025 pretraining gains at a 1e19 FLOPs budget: a 3.24x gap, or 1.51x per year for data against 1.24x for models. Additive data and model effects explain 88% of performance variance with almost no interaction term. Their caveat is th...
The essay decomposes frontier compute growth through 2030 into roughly 3x per year (1.4x from Moore's Law, 1.2x from new fabs, 1.8x from AI capturing leading-edge wafer allocation from other devices) against leading-lab revenue tracking 10x growth, arguing price is the obvious...
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